Monday, 13 February 2012

A Greek Tragedy.


Shops looted, buildings blazing, a city in panic, mobs raging.

The scene could be London last August, or any major city with subsurface tensions. This is Athens, where friction has given way to violent protests amidst the latest economic deals from Brussels.

Despite the promise of an election in April, the Greek people are none the more encouraged to retain faith that their money is safe. There has been a rush on banks and cases of citizens sending money to accounts abroad. The economic crisis could make or break underneath the shadow of the acropolis, once a symbol of Greek might and myth.

Now, the dreamy myth is long since dispelled. The latest emergency relief package from the EU and IMF is projected to offer an injection of approximately €130 billion, should they receive proof that Greece is implementing its latest austerity measures.

However, the unrest and winter of discontent only breeds malaise amongst the Greek government. On Saturday night, parliament may have voted in favour of new spending cuts, but with almost 50 deputies rebelling, battle lines had clearly been drawn on an epic scale.

If the deal is not closed however, Greece could default as early as next March.

Therefore, the balance of power rests on the foreign leaders wanting a promise of austerity measures versus the Greek electorate, who resent the interference from the West and are seeing their country’s economy downsizing for the fifth year in a row.

In this second programme of cuts, ministers in Athens have pledged to slashing 15,000 public-sector jobs as part of a longer-term strategy to get rid of 150,000 civil servants. In addition, there have been moves to reduce the minimum wage level by an overwhelming 20%, whilst also altering the labour laws to ensure easier staff dismissal.

None of this is good news for the populous at large. Greek is already one of the poorest EU countries, with a low GDP per capita, and their borrowing has spiralled out of control, despite being burdened with a set of sweeping cuts last year.

If Greece were to heed to calls for the return of its Euro predecessor, the drachma, then there were be further turmoil across Europe, as funds pumped into the economy were annexed and other countries were made to subsidise the lost revenue. In addition, there would be mass movement of Greek Euros abroad, so as the people could capitalise on falling trade values and earn more money.

When concerns first started in 2009, Greece was burdened with debt amounting to 113% of GDP - nearly double the eurozone limit of 60%. Ratings agencies started to downgrade Greek bank and government debt and this has only led to stifled growth and the increase in debt. But how had EU regulations not picked up on the expenditure that saw such huge waste of resources?

The possibility is that Greece could be forced to leave the Eurozone so as there is not a continual stream of lost wealth. But whilst this might only disrupt Europe for a little while, the impact on Greece would ensure that it was hampered by debt well into the latter half of this century, with little consumer trust, economic growth, or trading partners.

The outlook is bleak then. With an uncertainty as to whether the Greek can meet Eurozone demands, public backlash and a potential run on more financial institutions, the recovery is far from certain. There are those who belief that another loan from Europe just kicks the inevitable further down the path and that reductions in deficit by 2020 are unrealistic.

Certainly, the play before the Acropolis today is a Greek tragedy.


No comments:

Post a Comment